China’s Real Estate Bubble Prone To Tariff Fallout
The US and Chinese governments have continued their trade war, placing increased tariffs on each other's goods. Stock Investor reported that this isn't the solution everyone's looking for. An increase in volatility isn't helping anyone, and reports have also mentioned that investor sentiment may also be affected if the tension from the trade war remained.
Global markets have grown weary of the Asian market because of these, but most are still hopeful of a deal between the Trump administration and the government of Xi Jin Ping.
That being said, the evidence pointed to the contrary. Analysts have pointed out that there are sufficient signs that both sides are preparing for a long trade war, trying to fish out terms that are favorable to one side or the other.
China has its reputation of being "the world's factory" to consider. Meanwhile, the US isn't without weapons to use in the deal. The US is still using the technology card as well to gain access to favorable policies. China's GDP still is at 300% or more allegedly, but that can dry out pretty fast, especially if the US continues to apply heavy pressure on China's economy as well as its various financial systems.
This is the problem that's been plaguing China, as well as most of its residents. The tariffs mean high prices, hefty downpayment requirements, and problems for first-time home buyers. Reuters reported that the Zhengzhou property market has been affected heavily by this, which experienced an "explosion" of sorts in 2016.
The problem is not China's creation by any means. Developers have tried to help by shouldering the up-front 30% downpayment by home buyers. They borrowed that up-front payment itself; however, it was a risky sign that the developers were being affected by the economic fallout coming from the US-China trade war.
Local governments like Zhengzhou have tried to do its part to alleviate these ravaging effects. Zhengzhou itself had created price caps for new developments in order to make it easier for developers to let go of inventory. However, due to fears or whatever scares, they haven't done anything to help the property market hobbled by the trade war.
The danger of the trade war is that Trump understands what happens when leveraged real estate happens. Should the trade war lower the Chinese GDP to anywhere near or below 5.0%, it might experience a reset similar to the 2008-2009 experience of the US property market. This might be what Trump is waiting for--but it is heavily affecting people from both countries.