The Sparks That Could Ignite The Next Global Economic Recession
"Easy money" is good for asset bubbles but is never the answer to saving the global economy from a recession. Forbes reported that these are the visions of senior research analyst and economist Ted Bauman of Banyan Hill Publishing.
Bauman said that historical experiences teach people that central banks can quickly ease monetary conditions but people still have the choice in using "easy money" or not. His personal choice is an old school approach to financial economics, where people borrow money with an "economically rational" approach. Consumers or businesses will not borrow money no matter how cheap it is without the assurance of a positive benefit.
Bauman pointed out that monetary policy has "lost effectiveness" in the modern era. Monetary easing as a solution to the recession is not the answer. It's like "pushing on a string" where people can continue pushing on it, but the result will still end negatively. Bauman issued his statements in response to the Federal Reserve's latest decision to ease the Fed Funds rating by 25 bps.
That's one of the major sparks. Another one could be the US-China trade dispute. US President Donald Trump is adamant on making good on his promise to raise the tariffs on Chinese goods to about 25% or even beyond. This, Fox Business reported, will make sure that the global economy goes on a recession. Michael Crook of UBS Global Wealth Management also echoed this idea.
According to Crook, it is still too early to worry about the recession. It is also largely dependent on how the escalation of the trade war proceeds. He shared these sentiments with Fox Business' Charles Payne on the latter's "Making Money with Charles Payne" show.
Crook added that a possibility he's looking into has the US and China in a sort of ceasefire. There are a few weeks before anyone can confirm that it will happen or not. Based on Trump's promise of imposing an additional 10% in tariffs, Crook says a tariff imposition will likely happen. The 10% tariff imposition wouldn't cause a recession, but 25% in tariffs-if it does happen-will more than likely guarantee the next global recession.
Bauman and Crook's ideas lend a sense of urgency to the situation that's happening right now. The last recession should teach anyone that interest rate cuts are not the answer, and trade tariffs do no one any good. The US government should realize this before it's too late for everyone.